Missouri’s points with Matt Zollers and without Matt Zollers
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri was 5.7 points under with Matt Zollers and 2.1 points over without Matt Zollers over its last 25 games, 4 games against 15. The plain averages are 20.8 and 33.1, a difference of 12.3. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Matt Zollers.
Matt Zollers, quarterback: 590 passing yards, 101 pass attempts and 55 completions in 9 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Matt Zollers
−5.7
without Matt Zollers
+2.1
-20020
A −7.8 difference in points over expected with Matt Zollers vs without Matt Zollers is about what you’d expect.
plain
20.8
33.1
204060
A −12.3 difference in points with Matt Zollers vs without Matt Zollers is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Matt Zollerswithout Matt Zollers
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ South Carolina | L | 30 | 17.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | W | 39 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arkansas | W | 28 | 28.2 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Iowa (neutral) | W | 27 | 22.5 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsCCentral Arkansas | W | 61 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 42 | 28.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 52 | 34.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 29 | 23.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 42 | 46.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | 24 | 21.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 23 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 10 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 17 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMississippi State | W | 49 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 6 | 17.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Arkansas | W | 31 | 31.0 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Virginia (neutral) | L | 7 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 54 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @Kansas | W | 38 | 25.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 27 | 37.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Mississippi State | L | 24 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 45 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 3 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 34 | 26.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Central Arkansas, Arkansas-Pine Bluff have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 11 of these 21 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Matt Zollers nor without Matt Zollers: Matt Zollers had no game for the team that season, and sit out.