Missouri’s points of margin vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri was 3.3 points under vs a ranked opponent and 5.9 points over vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 9 games against 14. The plain averages are -6.6 and 21.0, a difference of 27.6. All 5 games while unranked were vs an unranked opponent.
Missouri’s −9.2 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 68th of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −9.2 difference in points of margin over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 13 times in 100.
A −27.6 difference in points of margin vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ South Carolina | L | -4 | -11.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Mississippi State | W | 19 | 6.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Arkansas | W | 7 | 5.5 | |
| Dec 30, 2024 | vs Iowa (neutral) | W | 3 | -3.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsCCentral Arkansas | W | 55 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Kansas | W | 11 | 9.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Louisiana | W | 42 | 24.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSouth Carolina | W | 9 | 6.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UMass | W | 36 | 49.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Alabama | L | -3 | -3.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Auburn | W | 6 | -1.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Vanderbilt | L | -7 | -9.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | -21 | -1.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMississippi State | W | 22 | 9.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | -11 | -6.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Arkansas | W | 14 | 1.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Virginia (neutral) | L | -6 | 2.5 | |
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @Kansas | W | 17 | 5.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 10 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Mississippi State | L | -7 | 5.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 28 | -3.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 21 | 2.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | -28 | -1.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Arkansas | W | 24 | 8.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Central Arkansas, Arkansas-Pine Bluff have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.