Missouri’s points allowed with Donovan Olugbode and without Donovan Olugbode
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri was 0.3 points under with Donovan Olugbode and 15.9 points under without Donovan Olugbode in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 20.1 and 6.0, a difference of 14.1. All 4 away games were with Donovan Olugbode. All 3 night games were with Donovan Olugbode. All 3 ranked opponents were with Donovan Olugbode.
Donovan Olugbode, receiver: 593 receiving yards, 41 receptions and 7 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game without Donovan Olugbode is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Donovan Olugbode
−0.3
without Donovan Olugbode
−15.9
-100
plain
20.1
6.0
102030
The games
with Donovan Olugbodewithout Donovan Olugbode
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3, 2026 | vsAArkansas-Pine Bluff | W | 14 | — | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | @ Kansas | W | 21 | 20.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Troy | W | 17 | 9.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | L | 31 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Florida | W | 17 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 6 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 31 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Arkansas | W | 10 | 19.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 5 of these 8 games; in the other 3 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.