Mississippi State’s third-down conversion rate with Parker Puckett and without Parker Puckett
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 10.7 percentage points under with Parker Puckett and 1.8 percentage points over without Parker Puckett over its last 25 games, 2 games against 18. The plain averages are 27.9% and 43.0%, a difference of 15.1%. All 7 night games were without Parker Puckett. All 4 top-10 opponents were without Parker Puckett. All 7 nonconference games were without Parker Puckett.
Parker Puckett, quarterback: 390 passing yards, 74 pass attempts and 44 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
2 games with Parker Puckett is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −12.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
A −15.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs UMass | W | 55.6% | 44.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 23.1% | 37.3% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Missouri | L | 20.0% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | L | 26.7% | 36.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | W | 57.1% | 45.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 42.9% | 38.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 38.5% | 50.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 42.1% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 32.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Florida | L | 53.3% | 40.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas | L | 31.6% | 36.6% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 42.9% | 43.6% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 50.0% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Missouri | L | 38.9% | 36.0% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | 52.9% | 37.3% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Wake Forest (neutral) | L | 21.4% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 45.5% | 45.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 60.0% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 45.5% | 42.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 42.9% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 41.2% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 46.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 9.1% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Texas | L | 33.3% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Parker Puckett nor without Parker Puckett: Parker Puckett had no game for the team that season, and sit out.