Mississippi State’s third-down conversion rate with Parker Puckett and without Parker Puckett
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 10.7 percentage points under with Parker Puckett and 4.7 percentage points over without Parker Puckett in 2026, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 27.9% and 44.7%, a difference of 16.8%. All 3 night games were without Parker Puckett. Both nonconference games were without Parker Puckett. All 4 first-half games were without Parker Puckett.
Parker Puckett, quarterback: 390 passing yards, 74 pass attempts and 44 completions in 5 games this season.
2 games with Parker Puckett is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −15.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
A −16.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 45.5% | 45.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 60.0% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 45.5% | 42.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 42.9% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 41.2% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 46.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 9.1% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 33.3% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.