Mississippi State’s third-down conversion rate with Fluff Bothwell and without Fluff Bothwell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 0.4 percentage points under with Fluff Bothwell and 9.6 percentage points over without Fluff Bothwell in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 39.6% and 46.7%, a difference of 7.0%. All 4 home games were with Fluff Bothwell. All 3 night games were with Fluff Bothwell. All 4 unranked opponents were with Fluff Bothwell.
Fluff Bothwell, running back: 563 rushing yards, 108 carries and 13 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Fluff Bothwell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Fluff Bothwell
−0.4%
without Fluff Bothwell
+9.6%
-20%0%20%
plain
39.6%
46.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with Fluff Bothwellwithout Fluff Bothwell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 45.5% | 45.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 60.0% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 45.5% | 42.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 42.9% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 41.2% | 38.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 46.7% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 9.1% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 33.3% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.