Mississippi State’s points with Parker Puckett and without Parker Puckett
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 19.3 points under with Parker Puckett and 2.5 points over without Parker Puckett over its last 25 games, 2 games against 18. The plain averages are 7.5 and 31.2, a difference of 23.7. All 7 night games were without Parker Puckett. All 4 top-10 opponents were without Parker Puckett. All 7 nonconference games were without Parker Puckett.
Parker Puckett, quarterback: 390 passing yards, 74 pass attempts and 44 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
2 games with Parker Puckett is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −21.7 difference in points over expected with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
A −23.7 difference in points with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs UMass | W | 45 | 40.3 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 14 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Missouri | L | 20 | 24.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | L | 14 | 18.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | W | 34 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 24 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 38 | 34.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 34 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 9 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Florida | L | 21 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas | L | 38 | 22.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 38 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 21 | 22.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Missouri | L | 27 | 21.0 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | 19 | 28.7 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Wake Forest (neutral) | L | 29 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 62 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 38 | 25.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 41 | 24.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 31 | 22.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 23 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 0 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 15 | 28.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Texas | L | 3 | 22.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Parker Puckett nor without Parker Puckett: Parker Puckett had no game for the team that season, and sit out.