Mississippi State’s points of margin with Fluff Bothwell and without Fluff Bothwell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 0.1 points under with Fluff Bothwell and 2.5 points under without Fluff Bothwell over its last 25 games, 17 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.7 and -13.3, a difference of 15.0. All 7 night games were with Fluff Bothwell. All 4 top-10 opponents were with Fluff Bothwell. All 7 nonconference games were with Fluff Bothwell.
Fluff Bothwell, running back: 1,240 rushing yards, 250 carries and 27 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
3 games without Fluff Bothwell is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Fluff Bothwell vs without Fluff Bothwell is about what you’d expect.
A +15.0 difference in points of margin with Fluff Bothwell vs without Fluff Bothwell is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs UMass | W | 25 | 17.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | -19 | -22.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Missouri | L | -19 | -6.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | L | -12 | -28.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | W | 17 | 9.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 63 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 28 | 18.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | -7 | -5.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | -22 | -17.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Florida | L | -2 | -6.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas | L | -7 | -9.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 3 | -7.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | -20 | -12.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Missouri | L | -22 | -9.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | -19 | -12.1 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Wake Forest (neutral) | L | -14 | 0.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 49 | 30.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 25 | 0.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 7 | -13.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 7 | -5.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | -33 | -5.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | -31 | -16.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | -8 | 7.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Texas | L | -28 | -9.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Fluff Bothwell nor without Fluff Bothwell: Fluff Bothwell had no game for the team that season, and sit out.