Mississippi State’s points allowed with Fluff Bothwell and without Fluff Bothwell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 1.7 points over with Fluff Bothwell and 7.5 points under without Fluff Bothwell in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 27.7 and 31.0, a difference of 3.3. Expected was 12.5 points lower with Fluff Bothwell than without Fluff Bothwell. All 4 home games were with Fluff Bothwell. All 3 night games were with Fluff Bothwell. All 4 unranked opponents were with Fluff Bothwell.
Fluff Bothwell, running back: 563 rushing yards, 108 carries and 13 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Fluff Bothwell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Fluff Bothwell
+1.7
without Fluff Bothwell
−7.5
-1001020
plain
27.7
31.0
2040
The games
with Fluff Bothwellwithout Fluff Bothwell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 13 | 11.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 13 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 34 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 24 | 26.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 56 | 29.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 31 | 38.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 23 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 31 | 30.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.