Mississippi State’s passing yards with Kamario Taylor and without Kamario Taylor
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 53.5 yards over with Kamario Taylor and 16.9 yards under without Kamario Taylor over its last 25 games, 7 games against 13. The plain averages are 288.3 and 220.6, a difference of 67.6.
Kamario Taylor, quarterback: 2,089 passing yards, 236 pass attempts and 147 completions in 17 of those 25 games, 47% of Mississippi State’s passing yards in those games.
passing yards a game over expected
A +70.3 difference in passing yards over expected with Kamario Taylor vs without Kamario Taylor is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kamario Taylor and it comes up 11 times in 100.
A +67.6 difference in passing yards with Kamario Taylor vs without Kamario Taylor is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kamario Taylor and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs UMass | W | 222 | 239.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Tennessee | L | 92 | 242.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Missouri | L | 191 | 244.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Ole Miss | L | 291 | 234.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Southern Miss | W | 279 | 274.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Arizona State | W | 279 | 228.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Alcorn State | W | 232 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 160 | 249.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsTennessee | L | 175 | 266.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | L | 142 | 220.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Florida | L | 324 | 221.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas | L | 382 | 228.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Arkansas | W | 282 | 242.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Georgia | L | 173 | 237.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Missouri | L | 235 | 203.2 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsOle Miss | L | 178 | 240.1 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Wake Forest (neutral) | L | 294 | 213.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 417 | 218.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 227 | 223.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 258 | 254.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsMissouri | W | 360 | 242.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 284 | 252.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 121 | 244.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 186 | 238.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Texas | L | 119 | 220.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 in 2025, plus 4.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 68% in 2025, 59% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Alcorn State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 21 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Kamario Taylor nor without Kamario Taylor: Kamario Taylor had no game for the team that season, and sit out.