Mississippi State’s pass attempts with Parker Puckett and without Parker Puckett
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 2.3 pass attempts under with Parker Puckett and 1.2 pass attempts over without Parker Puckett in 2026, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 28.0 and 32.3, a difference of 4.3. All 3 night games were without Parker Puckett. Both nonconference games were without Parker Puckett. All 4 first-half games were without Parker Puckett.
Parker Puckett, quarterback: 390 passing yards, 74 pass attempts and 44 completions in 5 games this season, 45% of Mississippi State’s pass attempts in those games.
2 games with Parker Puckett is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −3.5 difference in pass attempts over expected with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
A −4.3 difference in pass attempts with Parker Puckett vs without Parker Puckett is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 42 | 25.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 22 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 27 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 38 | 33.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 40 | 28.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 26 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 30 | 29.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 25 | 33.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.