Mississippi State’s carries with Kamario Taylor and since Kamario Taylor’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 0.9 carries under with Kamario Taylor and 4.0 carries over since Kamario Taylor’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 36.6 and 38.7, a difference of 2.1. Expected was 2.8 carries higher with Kamario Taylor than since Kamario Taylor’s last game. Both nonconference games were with Kamario Taylor. All 4 first-half games were with Kamario Taylor.
Kamario Taylor, quarterback: 1,460 passing yards, 159 pass attempts and 104 completions in 6 games this season, 21% of Mississippi State’s carries in those games.
3 games since Kamario Taylor’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −4.9 difference in carries over expected with Kamario Taylor vs since Kamario Taylor’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −2.1 difference in carries with Kamario Taylor vs since Kamario Taylor’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 36 | 45.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 46 | 34.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 31 | 36.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 40 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 30 | 36.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 42 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 33 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 41 | 34.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.