Mississippi State’s carries with Fluff Bothwell and without Fluff Bothwell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Mississippi State was 0.4 carries under with Fluff Bothwell and 9.8 carries over without Fluff Bothwell in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.7 and 42.0, a difference of 5.3. All 4 home games were with Fluff Bothwell. All 3 night games were with Fluff Bothwell. All 4 unranked opponents were with Fluff Bothwell.
Fluff Bothwell, running back: 563 rushing yards, 108 carries and 13 receptions in 7 games this season, 42% of Mississippi State’s carries in those games.
One game without Fluff Bothwell is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Fluff Bothwell
−0.4
without Fluff Bothwell
+9.8
010
plain
36.7
42.0
30354045
The games
with Fluff Bothwellwithout Fluff Bothwell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 36 | 45.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Minnesota | W | 46 | 34.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Carolina | W | 31 | 36.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 40 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Alabama | L | 30 | 36.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ LSU | L | 42 | 32.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | L | 33 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 41 | 34.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.