Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Tommy Carr and without Tommy Carr
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 11.4 percentage points over with Tommy Carr and 0.5 percentage points under without Tommy Carr over its last 25 games, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 52.5% and 40.0%, a difference of 12.5%. All 3 games while ranked were without Tommy Carr. All 3 nonconference games were without Tommy Carr.
Tommy Carr, quarterback: 503 passing yards, 68 pass attempts and 49 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
2 games with Tommy Carr is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +11.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is about what you’d expect.
A +12.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Indiana | L | 33.3% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Northwestern | W | 68.8% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Ohio State | W | 50.0% | 37.3% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 29.4% | 37.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.2% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 72.7% | 48.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 33.3% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 41.7% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ USC | L | 22.2% | 43.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 40.0% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 54.5% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorthwestern (neutral) | W | 64.3% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 85.7% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOhio State | L | 11.1% | 37.5% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 22.2% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 30.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOklahoma | W | 30.8% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 69.2% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 38.5% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 30.0% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 41.7% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIndiana | L | 30.0% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 75.0% | 42.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Tommy Carr nor without Tommy Carr: Tommy Carr had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.