Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Tommy Carr and without Tommy Carr
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 11.4 percentage points over with Tommy Carr and 0.5 percentage points under without Tommy Carr in 2026, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 52.5% and 40.0%, a difference of 12.5%. All 3 games while ranked were without Tommy Carr. All 3 nonconference games were without Tommy Carr. All 4 first-half games were without Tommy Carr.
Tommy Carr, quarterback: 503 passing yards, 68 pass attempts and 49 completions in 4 games this season.
2 games with Tommy Carr is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +11.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is about what you’d expect.
A +12.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 30.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 30.8% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 69.2% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 38.5% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 30.0% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 41.7% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 30.0% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 75.0% | 42.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.