Michigan’s third-down conversion rate with Bryce Underwood and since Bryce Underwood’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 1.1 percentage points over with Bryce Underwood and 11.4 percentage points over since Bryce Underwood’s last game over its last 25 games, 19 games against 2. The plain averages are 42.2% and 52.5%, a difference of 10.3%. Both neutral-site games were with Bryce Underwood. All 5 night games were with Bryce Underwood. All 15 games while ranked were with Bryce Underwood.
Bryce Underwood, quarterback: 3,352 passing yards, 459 pass attempts and 274 completions in 20 of those 25 games.
2 games since Bryce Underwood’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −10.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Bryce Underwood vs since Bryce Underwood’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −10.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Bryce Underwood vs since Bryce Underwood’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Indiana | L | 33.3% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Northwestern | W | 68.8% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Ohio State | W | 50.0% | 37.3% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 29.4% | 37.5% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.2% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 21.4% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 72.7% | 48.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 33.3% | 43.6% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 41.7% | 38.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ USC | L | 22.2% | 43.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 40.0% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 54.5% | 41.0% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorthwestern (neutral) | W | 64.3% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 85.7% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOhio State | L | 11.1% | 37.5% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 22.2% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 30.0% | 45.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOklahoma | W | 30.8% | 37.0% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 69.2% | 46.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 38.5% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 30.0% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 41.7% | 35.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIndiana | L | 30.0% | 40.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 75.0% | 42.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Bryce Underwood nor since Bryce Underwood’s last game: Bryce Underwood had no game for the team that season, and sit out.