Michigan’s points with Tommy Carr and without Tommy Carr
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 7.0 points under with Tommy Carr and 0.1 points over without Tommy Carr over its last 25 games, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 17.0 and 22.7, a difference of 5.7. All 3 games while ranked were without Tommy Carr. All 3 nonconference games were without Tommy Carr.
Tommy Carr, quarterback: 503 passing yards, 68 pass attempts and 49 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
2 games with Tommy Carr is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −7.1 difference in points over expected with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is about what you’d expect.
A −5.7 difference in points with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Indiana | L | 15 | 19.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Northwestern | W | 50 | 24.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Ohio State | W | 13 | 13.1 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 19 | 18.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 34 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 13 | 20.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 63 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 30 | 28.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 24 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ USC | L | 13 | 27.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 24 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 31 | 31.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 21 | 35.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorthwestern (neutral) | W | 24 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 45 | 27.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOhio State | L | 9 | 17.7 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 27 | 24.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 13 | 26.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOklahoma | W | 17 | 17.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 52 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 19 | 16.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 14 | 20.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 21 | 20.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIndiana | L | 6 | 16.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 28 | 31.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Tommy Carr nor without Tommy Carr: Tommy Carr had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.