Michigan’s points of margin with John Henry Daley and since John Henry Daley’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 1.7 points over with John Henry Daley and 3.6 points under since John Henry Daley’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 4.6 and 7.0, a difference of 2.4. Expected was 7.7 points lower with John Henry Daley than since John Henry Daley’s last game. All 6 home games were with John Henry Daley. All 3 ranked opponents were with John Henry Daley. All 3 games while ranked were with John Henry Daley.
John Henry Daley, defender: 6 of those 25 games.
One game since John Henry Daley’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with John Henry Daley
+1.7
since John Henry Daley’s last game
−3.6
-10010
plain
4.6
7.0
020
The games
with John Henry Daleysince John Henry Daley’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Indiana | L | -5 | -14.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Northwestern | W | 44 | 10.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Ohio State | W | 3 | -22.0 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 6 | -12.1 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 17 | 15.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | -11 | -3.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 60 | 22.4 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 3 | 5.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 14 | 12.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ USC | L | -18 | -5.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 17 | -3.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 11 | 8.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 5 | 20.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorthwestern (neutral) | W | 2 | 8.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 25 | 8.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOhio State | L | -18 | -10.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | -14 | 1.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 1 | 14.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOklahoma | W | 7 | -6.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 35 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | -1 | -6.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | -6 | -0.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 3 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIndiana | L | -7 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 7 | 10.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with John Henry Daley nor since John Henry Daley’s last game: John Henry Daley had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.