Michigan’s points allowed with John Henry Daley and since John Henry Daley’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 3.6 points under with John Henry Daley and 1.3 points under since John Henry Daley’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 15.7 and 21.0, a difference of 5.3. All 6 home games were with John Henry Daley. All 3 ranked opponents were with John Henry Daley. All 3 games while ranked were with John Henry Daley.
John Henry Daley, defender: 6 of those 25 games.
One game since John Henry Daley’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with John Henry Daley
−3.6
since John Henry Daley’s last game
−1.3
-100
plain
15.7
21.0
101520
The games
with John Henry Daleysince John Henry Daley’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Indiana | L | 20 | 32.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Northwestern | W | 6 | 14.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Ohio State | W | 10 | 32.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Alabama (neutral) | W | 13 | 29.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs New Mexico | W | 17 | 17.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | L | 24 | 24.0 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 3 | 11.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Nebraska | W | 27 | 23.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 10 | 14.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ USC | L | 31 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Washington | W | 7 | 29.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 20 | 23.7 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Purdue | W | 16 | 17.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsNorthwestern (neutral) | W | 22 | 18.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Maryland | W | 20 | 19.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsOhio State | L | 27 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 41 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 12 | 15.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOklahoma | W | 10 | 23.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 17 | 7.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 20 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 20 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 18 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsIndiana | L | 13 | 24.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 21 | 22.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with John Henry Daley nor since John Henry Daley’s last game: John Henry Daley had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.