Michigan’s passing yards with Bryce Underwood and since Bryce Underwood’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 31.7 yards under with Bryce Underwood and 22.0 yards over since Bryce Underwood’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 165.7 and 216.5, a difference of 50.8. All 3 games while ranked were with Bryce Underwood. All 3 nonconference games were with Bryce Underwood. All 4 first-half games were with Bryce Underwood.
Bryce Underwood, quarterback: 924 passing yards, 124 pass attempts and 72 completions in 7 games this season, 80% of Michigan’s passing yards in those games.
2 games since Bryce Underwood’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
A −53.7 difference in passing yards over expected with Bryce Underwood vs since Bryce Underwood’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −50.8 difference in passing yards with Bryce Underwood vs since Bryce Underwood’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 170 | 250.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 111 | 194.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 246 | 196.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 276 | 180.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 101 | 188.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 90 | 173.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 167 | 179.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 266 | 209.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.