Michigan’s carries with Tommy Carr and without Tommy Carr
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Michigan was 7.6 carries over with Tommy Carr and 1.7 carries under without Tommy Carr in 2026, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 42.5 and 34.8, a difference of 7.7. All 3 games while ranked were without Tommy Carr. All 3 nonconference games were without Tommy Carr. All 4 first-half games were without Tommy Carr.
Tommy Carr, quarterback: 503 passing yards, 68 pass attempts and 49 completions in 4 games this season, 21% of Michigan’s carries in those games.
2 games with Tommy Carr is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +9.3 difference in carries over expected with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Tommy Carr and it comes up 16 times in 100.
A +7.7 difference in carries with Tommy Carr vs without Tommy Carr is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Tommy Carr and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | W | 25 | 40.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oklahoma | W | 41 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 41 | 38.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Iowa | L | 40 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Minnesota | L | 28 | 36.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 34 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Indiana | L | 42 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Rutgers | W | 43 | 35.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.