Miami (OH)’s third-down conversion rate with Caleb Heavner and without Caleb Heavner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (OH) was 8.0 percentage points under with Caleb Heavner and 2.4 percentage points over without Caleb Heavner over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 30.6% and 43.5%, a difference of 12.9%. All 4 conference games were with Caleb Heavner. All 4 nonconference games were without Caleb Heavner.
Caleb Heavner, quarterback: 615 passing yards, 102 pass attempts and 56 completions in 7 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Caleb Heavner
−8.0%
without Caleb Heavner
+2.4%
-10%0%10%
A −10.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Caleb Heavner vs without Caleb Heavner is about what you’d expect.
plain
30.6%
43.5%
40%60%
A −12.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Caleb Heavner vs without Caleb Heavner is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Caleb Heavnerwithout Caleb Heavner
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Bowling Green | W | 40.0% | 32.7% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 36.4% | 36.2% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Colorado State (neutral) | W | 41.7% | 33.9% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 0.0% | 32.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Rutgers | L | 37.5% | 32.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 12.5% | 33.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLLindenwood | W | 30.8% | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 44.4% | 41.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Akron | W | 33.3% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 73.3% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 33.3% | 34.1% | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @Ohio | L | 30.8% | 34.2% | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Toledo | L | 31.3% | 34.3% | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Buffalo | W | 15.4% | 37.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 41.7% | 39.8% | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan (neutral) | L | 40.0% | 33.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Fresno State (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 23.1% | 33.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Holy Cross | W | 62.5% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 50.0% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 38.5% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBowling Green | L | 27.3% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 23.1% | 38.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 22.2% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 50.0% | 40.0% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Holy Cross has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Caleb Heavner nor without Caleb Heavner: Caleb Heavner had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.