Miami (OH)’s carries with David McComb and since David McComb’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (OH) was 6.0 carries under with David McComb and 1.7 carries over since David McComb’s last game over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 28.8 and 35.0, a difference of 6.3. All 4 conference games were since David McComb’s last game. All 4 nonconference games were with David McComb.
David McComb, quarterback: 1,121 passing yards, 103 pass attempts and 65 completions in 4 of those 25 games, 16% of Miami (OH)’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A −7.7 difference in carries over expected with David McComb vs since David McComb’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with David McComb and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A −6.3 difference in carries with David McComb vs since David McComb’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with David McComb and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Bowling Green | W | 24 | 28.6 | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 22 | 28.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Colorado State (neutral) | W | 34 | 29.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 22 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Rutgers | L | 22 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 22 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLLindenwood | W | 47 | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 49 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Akron | W | 39 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 52 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @Ohio | L | 30 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Toledo | L | 32 | 34.2 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Buffalo | W | 36 | 41.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 40 | 34.3 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan (neutral) | L | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Fresno State (neutral) | L | 26 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 21 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Holy Cross | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 28 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 28 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsBowling Green | L | 35 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 35 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 35 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 35 | 32.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Holy Cross has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with David McComb nor since David McComb’s last game: David McComb had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.