Miami (OH)’s carries with Caleb Heavner and without Caleb Heavner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (OH) was 3.1 carries over with Caleb Heavner and 7.2 carries under without Caleb Heavner over its last 25 games, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 37.6 and 28.8, a difference of 8.9. All 5 conference games were with Caleb Heavner. All 4 nonconference games were without Caleb Heavner.
Caleb Heavner, quarterback: 769 passing yards, 125 pass attempts and 68 completions in 8 of those 25 games, 24% of Miami (OH)’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +10.4 difference in carries over expected with Caleb Heavner vs without Caleb Heavner is unusual: shuffle which games were with Caleb Heavner and it comes up 2 times in 100.
A +8.9 difference in carries with Caleb Heavner vs without Caleb Heavner is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Caleb Heavner and it comes up 9 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Ohio (neutral) | L | 22 | 28.0 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Colorado State (neutral) | W | 34 | 29.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | L | 22 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Rutgers | L | 22 | 30.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs UNLV | L | 22 | 33.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLLindenwood | W | 47 | — | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Northern Illinois | W | 49 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Akron | W | 39 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 52 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Western Michigan | W | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 4, 2025 | @Ohio | L | 30 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 12, 2025 | vs Toledo | L | 32 | 34.2 | |
| Nov 19, 2025 | @ Buffalo | W | 36 | 41.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 40 | 34.3 | |
| Dec 6, 2025 | vsWestern Michigan (neutral) | L | 31 | 32.1 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Fresno State (neutral) | L | 26 | 33.5 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 21 | 31.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Holy Cross | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 28 | 32.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 28 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | L | 35 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 35 | 35.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsAkron | W | 35 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 35 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 3, 2026 | vsBuffalo | L | 48 | 34.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Holy Cross has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Caleb Heavner nor without Caleb Heavner: Caleb Heavner had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.