Miami (OH)’s carries with Caleb Heavner and without Caleb Heavner
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (OH) was 1.7 carries over with Caleb Heavner and 6.0 carries under without Caleb Heavner in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 35.0 and 28.8, a difference of 6.3. All 4 conference games were with Caleb Heavner. All 4 nonconference games were without Caleb Heavner. All 4 first-half games were without Caleb Heavner.
Caleb Heavner, quarterback: 769 passing yards, 125 pass attempts and 68 completions in 8 games this season, 29% of Miami (OH)’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +7.7 difference in carries over expected with Caleb Heavner vs without Caleb Heavner is unusual: shuffle which games were with Caleb Heavner and it comes up 3 times in 100.
A +6.3 difference in carries with Caleb Heavner vs without Caleb Heavner is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Caleb Heavner and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 21 | 30.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Holy Cross | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Cincinnati | L | 28 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UConn | W | 28 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Bowling Green | L | 35 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UMass | W | 35 | 34.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Akron | W | 35 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Central Michigan | W | 35 | 32.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Holy Cross has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.