Miami (FL)’s third-down conversion rate with Vandrevius Jacobs and without Vandrevius Jacobs
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 14.9 percentage points over with Vandrevius Jacobs and 6.0 percentage points over without Vandrevius Jacobs over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 55.0% and 50.5%, a difference of 4.5%. All 4 home games were with Vandrevius Jacobs. All 4 away games were without Vandrevius Jacobs. Both day games were with Vandrevius Jacobs.
Vandrevius Jacobs, receiver: 150 receiving yards, 9 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 4 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +8.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Vandrevius Jacobs vs without Vandrevius Jacobs is about what you’d expect.
A +4.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Vandrevius Jacobs vs without Vandrevius Jacobs is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 44.3% | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W | 30.8% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 63.6% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 50.0% | 46.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 35.7% | 46.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 41.7% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 43.8% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 22.2% | 47.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 50.0% | 47.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 53.8% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 62.5% | 38.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 35.1% | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | W | 57.9% | 41.1% | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 72.7% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.5% | 44.8% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 66.7% | 53.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 36.4% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 66.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 54.5% | 46.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Vandrevius Jacobs nor without Vandrevius Jacobs: Vandrevius Jacobs had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.