Miami (FL)’s third-down conversion rate with Mark Fletcher Jr. and without Mark Fletcher Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 5.9 percentage points over with Mark Fletcher Jr. and 2.9 percentage points under without Mark Fletcher Jr. over its last 25 games, 20 games against 3. The plain averages are 48.5% and 46.3%, a difference of 2.2%. Expected was 6.8 percentage points lower with Mark Fletcher Jr. than without Mark Fletcher Jr.. All 9 away games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. All 4 neutral-site games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. All 9 ranked opponents were with Mark Fletcher Jr..
Mark Fletcher Jr., running back: 1,711 rushing yards, 322 carries and 25 receptions in 22 of those 25 games.
3 games without Mark Fletcher Jr. is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +8.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Mark Fletcher Jr. vs without Mark Fletcher Jr. is about what you’d expect.
A +2.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Mark Fletcher Jr. vs without Mark Fletcher Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 44.3% | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W | 30.8% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 63.6% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 50.0% | 46.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 35.7% | 46.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 41.7% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 43.8% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 22.2% | 47.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 50.0% | 47.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 53.8% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 62.5% | 38.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 35.1% | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | W | 57.9% | 41.1% | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 72.7% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.5% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 66.7% | 53.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 36.4% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 66.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 54.5% | 46.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 25 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.