Miami (FL)’s third-down conversion rate with Mark Fletcher Jr. and without Mark Fletcher Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 9.2 percentage points over with Mark Fletcher Jr. and 13.7 percentage points over without Mark Fletcher Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 50.8% and 66.7%, a difference of 15.9%. All 4 away games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. Both day games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. All 5 games while in the top 5 were with Mark Fletcher Jr..
Mark Fletcher Jr., running back: 457 rushing yards, 94 carries and 7 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Mark Fletcher Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Mark Fletcher Jr.
+9.2%
without Mark Fletcher Jr.
+13.7%
0%10%20%
plain
50.8%
66.7%
40%50%60%70%
The games
with Mark Fletcher Jr.without Mark Fletcher Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Stanford | W | 72.7% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.5% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 66.7% | 53.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 36.4% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 66.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 54.5% | 46.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.