Miami (FL)’s third-down conversion rate with Girard Pringle Jr. and without Girard Pringle Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 7.5 percentage points over with Girard Pringle Jr. and 0.1 percentage points under without Girard Pringle Jr. over its last 25 games, 14 games against 8. The plain averages are 50.9% and 42.7%, a difference of 8.2%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Girard Pringle Jr..
Girard Pringle Jr., running back: 461 rushing yards, 91 carries and 8 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Girard Pringle Jr.
+7.5%
without Girard Pringle Jr.
−0.1%
-20%0%20%
A +7.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Girard Pringle Jr. vs without Girard Pringle Jr. is about what you’d expect.
plain
50.9%
42.7%
40%60%
A +8.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Girard Pringle Jr. vs without Girard Pringle Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Girard Pringle Jr.without Girard Pringle Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 44.3% | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W | 30.8% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 63.6% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 50.0% | 46.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 35.7% | 46.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 41.7% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 43.8% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 22.2% | 47.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 50.0% | 47.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 53.8% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 62.5% | 38.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 35.1% | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | W | 57.9% | 41.1% | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 72.7% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.5% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 66.7% | 53.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 36.4% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 66.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 54.5% | 46.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 24 games; in the other 9 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 1 game in 2024 is neither with Girard Pringle Jr. nor without Girard Pringle Jr.: Girard Pringle Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sits out.