Miami (FL)’s third-down conversion rate with Girard Pringle Jr. and since Girard Pringle Jr.’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 10.1 percentage points over with Girard Pringle Jr. and 8.4 percentage points over since Girard Pringle Jr.’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 52.5% and 54.5%, a difference of 2.0%. All 4 home games were with Girard Pringle Jr.. Both day games were with Girard Pringle Jr.. Both nonconference games were with Girard Pringle Jr..
Girard Pringle Jr., running back: 86 rushing yards, 29 carries and 4 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game since Girard Pringle Jr.’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Girard Pringle Jr.
+10.1%
since Girard Pringle Jr.’s last game
+8.4%
0%10%20%
plain
52.5%
54.5%
40%50%60%70%
The games
with Girard Pringle Jr.since Girard Pringle Jr.’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Stanford | W | 72.7% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.5% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 66.7% | 53.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 36.4% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 66.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 54.5% | 46.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.