Miami (FL)’s third-down conversion rate with CharMar Brown and without CharMar Brown
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 4.0 percentage points over with CharMar Brown and 6.7 percentage points over without CharMar Brown over its last 25 games, 16 games against 6. The plain averages are 47.4% and 50.4%, a difference of 3.0%. All 3 neutral-site games were with CharMar Brown. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with CharMar Brown.
CharMar Brown, running back: 571 rushing yards, 135 carries and 22 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −2.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with CharMar Brown vs without CharMar Brown is about what you’d expect.
A −3.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with CharMar Brown vs without CharMar Brown is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with CharMar Brown and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | L | 50.0% | 44.3% | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W | 30.8% | 40.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 66.7% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 63.6% | 44.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 50.0% | 46.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 35.7% | 46.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 41.7% | 41.3% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 53.3% | 42.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 43.8% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 22.2% | 47.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 50.0% | 47.3% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 53.8% | 45.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 62.5% | 38.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 25.0% | 35.0% | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 50.0% | 35.1% | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | W | 57.9% | 41.1% | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 72.7% | 47.4% | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.5% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 66.7% | 53.0% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 36.4% | 39.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 53.3% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 66.7% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 54.5% | 46.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 24 games; in the other 9 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 1 game in 2024 is neither with CharMar Brown nor without CharMar Brown: CharMar Brown had no game for the team that season, and sits out.