Miami (FL)’s points with Vandrevius Jacobs and without Vandrevius Jacobs
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 9.1 points over with Vandrevius Jacobs and 3.5 points over without Vandrevius Jacobs in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 56.0 and 39.3, a difference of 16.8. All 4 home games were with Vandrevius Jacobs. All 4 away games were without Vandrevius Jacobs. Both day games were with Vandrevius Jacobs.
Vandrevius Jacobs, receiver: 150 receiving yards, 9 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 4 games this season.
points a game over expected
A +5.6 difference in points over expected with Vandrevius Jacobs vs without Vandrevius Jacobs is about what you’d expect.
A +16.8 difference in points with Vandrevius Jacobs vs without Vandrevius Jacobs is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Vandrevius Jacobs and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Stanford | W | 45 | 45.5 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 77 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 33 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 52 | 43.7 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 41 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 43 | 42.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 52 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 38 | 35.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.