Miami (FL)’s points of margin with Vandrevius Jacobs and without Vandrevius Jacobs
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 2.7 points over with Vandrevius Jacobs and 6.9 points over without Vandrevius Jacobs over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 39.0 and 20.8, a difference of 18.3. All 4 home games were with Vandrevius Jacobs. All 4 away games were without Vandrevius Jacobs. Both day games were with Vandrevius Jacobs.
Vandrevius Jacobs, receiver: 150 receiving yards, 9 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 4 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −4.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Vandrevius Jacobs vs without Vandrevius Jacobs is about what you’d expect.
A +18.3 difference in points of margin with Vandrevius Jacobs vs without Vandrevius Jacobs is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Vandrevius Jacobs and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | L | -1 | 5.0 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W | 3 | -0.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 37 | 11.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 19 | 21.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 6 | 12.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | -3 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 35 | 29.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ SMU | L | -6 | 11.8 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 28 | 38.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 34 | 17.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 17 | 25.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 31 | 9.6 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 7 | 3.1 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 10 | -6.6 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | W | 4 | 6.0 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | -6 | -12.0 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 39 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 70 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 13 | 0.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 49 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 28 | 11.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 8 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 29 | 17.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 3 | 13.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Vandrevius Jacobs nor without Vandrevius Jacobs: Vandrevius Jacobs had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.