Miami (FL)’s points of margin with Mark Fletcher Jr. and without Mark Fletcher Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 3.7 points over with Mark Fletcher Jr. and 13.7 points over without Mark Fletcher Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 27.1 and 49.0, a difference of 21.9. All 4 away games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. Both day games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. All 5 games while in the top 5 were with Mark Fletcher Jr..
Mark Fletcher Jr., running back: 457 rushing yards, 94 carries and 7 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Mark Fletcher Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Mark Fletcher Jr.
+3.7
without Mark Fletcher Jr.
+13.7
-10010
plain
27.1
49.0
204060
The games
with Mark Fletcher Jr.without Mark Fletcher Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Stanford | W | 39 | 29.3 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 70 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 13 | 0.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 49 | 35.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 28 | 11.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 8 | 24.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 29 | 17.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 3 | 13.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.