Miami (FL)’s points allowed with Romanas Frederique Jr. and without Romanas Frederique Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 4.8 points under with Romanas Frederique Jr. and 0.7 points over without Romanas Frederique Jr. over its last 25 games, 10 games against 13. The plain averages are 13.5 and 19.4, a difference of 5.9.
Romanas Frederique Jr., defender: 11 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Romanas Frederique Jr.
−4.8
without Romanas Frederique Jr.
+0.7
-20-10010
A −5.4 difference in points allowed over expected with Romanas Frederique Jr. vs without Romanas Frederique Jr. is unusual: shuffle which games were with Romanas Frederique Jr. and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
13.5
19.4
10203040
A −5.9 difference in points allowed with Romanas Frederique Jr. vs without Romanas Frederique Jr. is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Romanas Frederique Jr.without Romanas Frederique Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs Iowa State (neutral) | L | 42 | 30.0 | |
| Aug 31, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | W | 24 | 25.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsBBethune-Cookman | W | 3 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 12 | 21.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 7 | 10.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 22 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | vs Louisville | L | 24 | 13.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 7 | 7.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ SMU | L | 26 | 18.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Syracuse | W | 10 | 3.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 7 | 16.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 17 | 11.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 7 | 21.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | @ Texas A&M | W | 3 | 25.7 | |
| Dec 31, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | W | 14 | 22.0 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Ole Miss (neutral) | W | 27 | 24.1 | |
| Jan 19, 2026 | vs Indiana (neutral) | L | 27 | 29.4 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | @Stanford | W | 6 | 20.9 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 7 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 20 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 3 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 13 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsFlorida State | W | 35 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsPittsburgh | W | 23 | 18.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 35 | 23.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.8 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 15 of these 25 games; in the other 10 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.