Miami (FL)’s carries with Mark Fletcher Jr. and without Mark Fletcher Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Miami (FL) was 0.8 carries over with Mark Fletcher Jr. and 4.8 carries under without Mark Fletcher Jr. in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.4 and 34.0, a difference of 2.4. Expected was 4.3 carries lower with Mark Fletcher Jr. than without Mark Fletcher Jr.. All 4 away games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. Both day games were with Mark Fletcher Jr.. All 5 games while in the top 5 were with Mark Fletcher Jr..
Mark Fletcher Jr., running back: 457 rushing yards, 94 carries and 7 receptions in 7 games this season, 37% of Miami (FL)’s carries in those games.
One game without Mark Fletcher Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Mark Fletcher Jr.
+0.8
without Mark Fletcher Jr.
−4.8
-50510
plain
36.4
34.0
3540
The games
with Mark Fletcher Jr.without Mark Fletcher Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | @ Stanford | W | 31 | 36.9 | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | vs Florida A&M | W | 43 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | @ Wake Forest | W | 31 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 34 | 38.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Clemson | W | 35 | 34.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Florida State | W | 44 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Pittsburgh | W | 39 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ North Carolina | W | 32 | 37.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Florida A&M has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.