Memphis’ third-down conversion rate with Dallan Hayden and without Dallan Hayden
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Memphis was 2.3 percentage points over with Dallan Hayden and 1.2 percentage points under without Dallan Hayden over its last 25 games, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 47.1% and 37.5%, a difference of 9.6%.
Dallan Hayden, running back: 195 rushing yards, 33 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games without Dallan Hayden is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +3.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Dallan Hayden vs without Dallan Hayden is about what you’d expect.
A +9.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dallan Hayden vs without Dallan Hayden is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs UAB | W | 50.0% | 43.4% | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ Tulane | W | 62.5% | 34.7% | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | W | 54.5% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Chattanooga | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 50.0% | 43.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Troy | W | 40.0% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 46.2% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 46.2% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 38.5% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @UAB | L | 45.5% | 41.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 37.5% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 40.0% | 39.5% | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsTulane | L | 46.2% | 38.5% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | 25.0% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs Navy | L | 33.3% | 40.0% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs NC State (neutral) | L | 47.1% | 39.7% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ UNLV | W | 27.3% | 39.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 55.6% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 12.5% | 37.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsUUT Martin | W | 69.2% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 62.5% | 34.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsUAB | W | 50.0% | 41.2% | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Tulane | L | 18.2% | 46.6% | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vsEast Carolina | W | 26.7% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Army | W | 73.3% | 41.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Dallan Hayden nor without Dallan Hayden: Dallan Hayden had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.