Memphis’ points of margin with Dallan Hayden and without Dallan Hayden
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Memphis was 4.4 points over with Dallan Hayden and 0.1 points under without Dallan Hayden over its last 25 games, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 18.3 and 5.3, a difference of 13.0.
Dallan Hayden, running back: 195 rushing yards, 33 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
3 games without Dallan Hayden is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Dallan Hayden
+4.4
without Dallan Hayden
−0.1
-2002040
A +4.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Dallan Hayden vs without Dallan Hayden is about what you’d expect.
plain
18.3
5.3
02040
A +13.0 difference in points of margin with Dallan Hayden vs without Dallan Hayden is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dallan Haydenwithout Dallan Hayden
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs UAB | W | 35 | 15.3 | |
| Nov 28, 2024 | @ Tulane | W | 10 | -13.1 | |
| Dec 17, 2024 | vs West Virginia (neutral) | W | 5 | -1.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Chattanooga | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Georgia State | W | 22 | 19.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Troy | W | 21 | 5.5 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 1 | -1.0 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Florida Atlantic | W | 29 | 10.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 38 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @UAB | L | -7 | 18.4 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs South Florida | W | 3 | -8.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Rice | W | 24 | 16.6 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | vsTulane | L | -6 | 2.5 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ East Carolina | L | -4 | -6.8 | |
| Nov 27, 2025 | vs Navy | L | -11 | 6.1 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs NC State (neutral) | L | -24 | -1.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ UNLV | W | 6 | 10.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 18 | 14.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | -18 | -6.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsUUT Martin | W | 24 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 51 | 10.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsUAB | W | 25 | 14.9 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @Tulane | L | -14 | 12.7 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vsEast Carolina | W | 7 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Army | W | 27 | 4.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 16 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Dallan Hayden nor without Dallan Hayden: Dallan Hayden had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.