Memphis’ carries with Dallan Hayden and without Dallan Hayden
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Memphis was 5.0 carries over with Dallan Hayden and 2.2 carries under without Dallan Hayden in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 44.3 and 34.0, a difference of 10.3.
Dallan Hayden, running back: 195 rushing yards, 33 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season, 12% of Memphis’s carries in those games.
3 games without Dallan Hayden is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +7.1 difference in carries over expected with Dallan Hayden vs without Dallan Hayden is about what you’d expect.
A +10.3 difference in carries with Dallan Hayden vs without Dallan Hayden is unusual: shuffle which games were with Dallan Hayden and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ UNLV | W | 34 | 38.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 47 | 40.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 26 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsUUT Martin | W | 40 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 55 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 46 | 44.0 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 44 | 42.2 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 37 | 41.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Army | W | 39 | 34.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.