Memphis’ points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Memphis was 8.6 points over at home and 1.6 points under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 43.0 and 30.8, a difference of 12.3.
Memphis’ +10.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 2nd of the 12 teams with 4 games on each side this season.
points a game over expected
at home
+8.6
away
−1.6
-1001020
A +10.2 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
43.0
30.8
2040
A +12.3 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ UNLV | W | 27 | 33.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Arkansas State | W | 42 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Boise State | L | 20 | 31.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsUUT Martin | W | 45 | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 59 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 38 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | @ Tulane | L | 17 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 22, 2026 | vs East Carolina | W | 41 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Army | W | 49 | 33.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.