Maryland’s third-down conversion rate with DeJuan Williams and without DeJuan Williams
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Maryland was 5.6 percentage points under with DeJuan Williams and 1.0 percentage points under without DeJuan Williams in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.0% and 32.5%, a difference of 3.5%. Expected was 3.9 percentage points higher with DeJuan Williams than without DeJuan Williams. All 3 away games were with DeJuan Williams. All 4 second-half games were with DeJuan Williams.
DeJuan Williams, running back: 338 rushing yards, 57 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without DeJuan Williams is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −4.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with DeJuan Williams vs without DeJuan Williams is about what you’d expect.
A +3.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with DeJuan Williams vs without DeJuan Williams is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHampton | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 53.3% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 58.3% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 6.7% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 7.1% | 32.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 25.0% | 36.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Rutgers | L | 30.8% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Illinois | L | 42.9% | 39.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Hampton has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.