Maryland’s rushing yards with DeJuan Williams and without DeJuan Williams
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Maryland was 10.7 yards under with DeJuan Williams and 63.8 yards under without DeJuan Williams over its last 25 games, 16 games against 2. The plain averages are 121.2 and 52.0, a difference of 69.2. All 7 away games were with DeJuan Williams. All 3 ranked opponents were with DeJuan Williams. Both top-10 opponents were with DeJuan Williams.
DeJuan Williams, running back: 839 rushing yards, 185 carries and 55 receptions in 18 of those 25 games, 38% of Maryland’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games without DeJuan Williams is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +53.2 difference in rushing yards over expected with DeJuan Williams vs without DeJuan Williams is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with DeJuan Williams and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A +69.2 difference in rushing yards with DeJuan Williams vs without DeJuan Williams is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with DeJuan Williams and it comes up 18 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Minnesota | L | 105 | 91.5 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Oregon | L | 85 | 119.6 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Rutgers | L | 122 | 161.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Iowa | L | 98 | 126.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Penn State | L | 72 | 97.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | W | 112 | 166.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vs Northern Illinois | W | 88 | 180.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsTTowson | W | 152 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Wisconsin | W | 61 | 69.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Washington | L | 55 | 77.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Nebraska | L | 116 | 138.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 127 | 127.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 37 | 48.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @Rutgers | L | 305 | 134.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Illinois | L | 55 | 90.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Michigan | L | 71 | 95.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Michigan State (neutral) | L | 75 | 111.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHampton | W | 365 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ UConn | W | 125 | 102.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 64 | 119.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsUCLA | L | 40 | 112.6 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Nebraska | L | 141 | 81.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Ohio State | L | 82 | 90.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsRutgers | L | 117 | 179.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsIllinois | L | 98 | 142.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Towson, Hampton have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with DeJuan Williams nor without DeJuan Williams: DeJuan Williams had no game for the team that season, and sit out.