LSU’s third-down conversion rate with Jayce Brown and since Jayce Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 8.0 percentage points over with Jayce Brown and 5.9 percentage points over since Jayce Brown’s last game over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 51.0% and 51.3%, a difference of 0.3%. Expected was 2.8 percentage points lower with Jayce Brown than since Jayce Brown’s last game. Both day games were since Jayce Brown’s last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Jayce Brown.
Jayce Brown, receiver: 89 receiving yards and 8 receptions in 4 of those 25 games.
3 games since Jayce Brown’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +2.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −0.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Florida | L | 54.2% | 42.5% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 61.5% | 50.2% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Oklahoma | W | 40.0% | 44.7% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 44.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 36.4% | 31.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 56.3% | 37.3% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsFlorida | W | 28.6% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 18.2% | 36.8% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 36.4% | 36.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | 45.5% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 15.4% | 29.1% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 35.7% | 34.4% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 47.1% | 40.7% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 18.8% | 41.1% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Oklahoma | L | 14.3% | 32.4% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Houston (neutral) | L | 58.3% | 35.2% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsClemson | W | 68.8% | 36.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLouisiana Tech | W | 47.1% | 47.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Ole Miss | L | 52.9% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 33.3% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 52.9% | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 53.8% | 46.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 61.5% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 38.5% | 44.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- McNeese has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jayce Brown nor since Jayce Brown’s last game: Jayce Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.