LSU’s third-down conversion rate with Jayce Brown and since Jayce Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 8.0 percentage points over with Jayce Brown and 5.9 percentage points over since Jayce Brown’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 51.0% and 51.3%, a difference of 0.3%. Expected was 2.8 percentage points lower with Jayce Brown than since Jayce Brown’s last game. Both day games were since Jayce Brown’s last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Jayce Brown. All 4 first-half games were with Jayce Brown.
Jayce Brown, receiver: 89 receiving yards and 8 receptions in 4 games this season.
3 games since Jayce Brown’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +2.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −0.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Clemson | W | 68.8% | 36.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 47.1% | 47.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 52.9% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 33.3% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 52.9% | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 53.8% | 46.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 61.5% | 45.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 38.5% | 44.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- McNeese has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.