LSU’s third-down conversion rate with Caden Durham and without Caden Durham
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 8.6 percentage points over with Caden Durham and 5.9 percentage points over without Caden Durham in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 51.8% and 50.4%, a difference of 1.4%. Expected was 1.6 percentage points lower with Caden Durham than without Caden Durham. All 3 ranked opponents were without Caden Durham. All 3 nonconference games were with Caden Durham.
Caden Durham, running back: 36 rushing yards and 12 carries in 4 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +2.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Caden Durham vs without Caden Durham is about what you’d expect.
A +1.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Caden Durham vs without Caden Durham is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Clemson | W | 68.8% | 36.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 47.1% | 47.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 52.9% | 44.0% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 33.3% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 52.9% | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 53.8% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 61.5% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 38.5% | 44.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- McNeese has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.