LSU’s points of margin with Jayce Brown and since Jayce Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 5.3 points over with Jayce Brown and 3.3 points over since Jayce Brown’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 28.4 and 17.0, a difference of 11.4. Both day games were since Jayce Brown’s last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Jayce Brown. All 4 first-half games were with Jayce Brown.
Jayce Brown, receiver: 89 receiving yards and 8 receptions in 4 games this season.
3 games since Jayce Brown’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +11.4 difference in points of margin with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Clemson | W | 41 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 31 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | -8 | 7.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 29 | 13.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 49 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | -1 | 12.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31 | 16.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 21 | 12.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- McNeese has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.