LSU’s points of margin with Caden Durham and without Caden Durham
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 1.5 points over with Caden Durham and 2.2 points over without Caden Durham over its last 25 games, 18 games against 5. The plain averages are 10.8 and 9.2, a difference of 1.6. Expected was 1.8 points lower with Caden Durham than without Caden Durham. Both neutral-site games were with Caden Durham. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Caden Durham. All 8 games while unranked were with Caden Durham.
Caden Durham, running back: 834 rushing yards, 182 carries and 26 receptions in 20 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
A −0.7 difference in points of margin over expected with Caden Durham vs without Caden Durham is about what you’d expect.
A +1.6 difference in points of margin with Caden Durham vs without Caden Durham is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Caden Durham and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Florida | L | -11 | 0.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 7 | 10.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Oklahoma | W | 20 | 6.8 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 13 | 2.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 7 | -3.4 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 16 | 16.6 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsFlorida | W | 10 | 3.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 46 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | -5 | -14.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 10 | 2.9 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | -7 | -13.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | -24 | -4.2 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | -11 | -12.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 1 | 6.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 3 | 20.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Oklahoma | L | -4 | -11.7 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Houston (neutral) | L | -3 | 4.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsClemson | W | 41 | 22.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLouisiana Tech | W | 31 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Ole Miss | L | -8 | 7.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 29 | 13.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 49 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | -1 | 12.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31 | 16.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 21 | 12.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- S E Louisiana, McNeese have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 10 of these 25 games; in the other 15 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.