LSU’s carries with Jayce Brown and since Jayce Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 8.3 carries over with Jayce Brown and 6.4 carries under since Jayce Brown’s last game over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 46.6 and 33.0, a difference of 13.6. Both day games were since Jayce Brown’s last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Jayce Brown.
Jayce Brown, receiver: 89 receiving yards and 8 receptions in 4 of those 25 games, 1% of LSU’s carries in those games.
3 games since Jayce Brown’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +14.6 difference in carries over expected with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayce Brown and it comes up 6 times in 100.
A +13.6 difference in carries with Jayce Brown vs since Jayce Brown’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayce Brown and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Florida | L | 44 | 31.8 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 29 | 27.9 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Oklahoma | W | 29 | 30.5 | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Baylor (neutral) | W | 27 | 32.5 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Clemson | W | 29 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 33 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vsFlorida | W | 22 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsSS E Louisiana | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ Ole Miss | L | 21 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 28 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Vanderbilt | L | 21 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Texas A&M | L | 27 | 26.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Alabama | L | 25 | 27.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 34 | 32.1 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 35 | 32.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Oklahoma | L | 29 | 27.5 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Houston (neutral) | L | 24 | 31.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsClemson | W | 57 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLouisiana Tech | W | 43 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Ole Miss | L | 43 | 39.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsTexas A&M | W | 38 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 52 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 35 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 30 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 34 | 43.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- McNeese has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jayce Brown nor since Jayce Brown’s last game: Jayce Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.