LSU’s carries with Caden Durham and without Caden Durham
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, LSU was 6.1 carries over with Caden Durham and 1.1 carries under without Caden Durham in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 46.5 and 36.5, a difference of 10.0. All 3 ranked opponents were without Caden Durham. All 3 nonconference games were with Caden Durham.
Caden Durham, running back: 36 rushing yards and 12 carries in 4 games this season, 6% of LSU’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Caden Durham
+6.1
without Caden Durham
−1.1
01020
A +7.2 difference in carries over expected with Caden Durham vs without Caden Durham is about what you’d expect.
plain
46.5
36.5
304050
A +10.0 difference in carries with Caden Durham vs without Caden Durham is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Caden Durhamwithout Caden Durham
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Clemson | W | 57 | 35.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Louisiana Tech | W | 43 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Ole Miss | L | 43 | 39.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Texas A&M | W | 38 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs McNeese | W | 52 | — | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Kentucky | L | 35 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Mississippi State | W | 30 | 39.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Auburn | W | 34 | 43.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- McNeese has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 3 of these 8 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.