Louisiana’s third-down conversion rate with Darrell Smith and without Darrell Smith
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Louisiana was 5.9 percentage points under with Darrell Smith and 5.5 percentage points over without Darrell Smith over its last 25 games, 8 games against 11. The plain averages are 35.0% and 43.9%, a difference of 8.8%. Both games after a bye were with Darrell Smith.
Darrell Smith, running back: 163 rushing yards, 33 carries and 2 receptions in 8 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −11.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Darrell Smith vs without Darrell Smith is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Darrell Smith and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A −8.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Darrell Smith vs without Darrell Smith is rare: shuffle which games were with Darrell Smith and it comes up once in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Troy | W | 30.0% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 41.7% | 39.9% | |
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 12.5% | 38.4% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs TCU (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 39.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Rice | L | 46.7% | 38.2% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs McNeese | W | 36.4% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Missouri | L | 9.1% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Eastern Michigan | L | 40.0% | 44.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsMarshall | W | 50.0% | 38.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ James Madison | L | 21.4% | 33.9% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Southern Miss | L | 37.5% | 44.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Troy | L | 46.7% | 37.4% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ South Alabama | W | 53.8% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Texas State | W | 63.2% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | @ Arkansas State | W | 37.5% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLouisiana Monroe | W | 37.5% | 43.4% | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs Delaware (neutral) | L | 35.3% | 41.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Lamar | W | 37.5% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ USC | L | 30.0% | 38.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs UAB | W | 37.5% | 43.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Charlotte | W | 28.6% | 40.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsArkansas State | W | 50.0% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 45.5% | 37.6% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsTroy | W | 58.8% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Southern Miss | L | 38.9% | 40.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- McNeese, Lamar have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Darrell Smith nor without Darrell Smith: Darrell Smith had no game for the team that season, and sit out.